RE: What will be the next big thing after Facebook and Twitter?

John Asked on 30 September 2020 in No Category.
Add Comment
1 Answers

The people who are offering the Zen-like answer (“the big thing that can be predicted is not the real big thing, it does not have true buddha-nature”) are being a little too skeptical. Historically, there’s been a fairly good record of people seeing “the next big thing” (NBT) a respectable fraction of the time, so it CAN be done, without 20/20 hindsight. Here are some successful big-thing anticipations that I am cherry-picking to illustrate when, why and how you can predict NBTs.

  1. The moon race/Apollo was the NBT of its time and everybody knew it. It trained a generation of technologists and spawned a huge ecosystem of offshoots we use to this day.
  2. Distributed computing was the NBT of the 70s, and Xerox invested in it for a decade to make it happen.
  3. As the man told Dustin Hoffmann in The Graduate: “Plastics.” Another NBT that plenty of people saw coming.
  4. Container shipping. The entire shipping industry saw it as a grand vision that could change everything, and they just had to wait for the people with the right talents. See my review of the history of the revolution: http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2009/0…


What caused the early warning visibility in each case?

Answered on 5 Juni 2014.
Add Comment

Your Answer

By posting your answer, you agree to the privacy policy and terms of service.